此轮大宗商品市场回暖,是阶段性反弹而非趋势性反转。中长期来看,大宗商品价格仍可能处于低迷状态。自2002年以来,国际大宗商品价格呈现出剧烈波动的特征。反映国际大宗商品价格走势的CRB现货指数,先是从2002年中旬的212.10点攀升至2008年7月的483.72点,2008年全球金融危机爆发后,又一路下跌至311.41点,跌幅逾35%;自2009年下半年开始,尤其是2010年下半年以后,国际大宗商品 This round of commodity market pick-up is a phased rebound instead of the trend reversal. In the medium to long term, commodity prices may still be in a downturn. Since 2002, the international commodity prices have shown the characteristics of volatility. The CRB spot index reflecting international commodity prices climbed from 212.10 points in mid-2002 to 483.72 points in July 2008. After the global financial crisis in 2008, it dropped again to 311.41 points, a decrease of over 35%. Since Beginning in the second half of 2009, especially after the second half of 2010, international commodities