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基于霍尔不确定条件下的消费理论,建立了一个分析消费决策的模型,并利用我国1992-2008年的省际面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示,减税与扩大政府支出都对消费有正向影响;投资收益的增加则会减少消费。在经济衰退时,减税和增加财政支出是提高消费、扩大内需的有效手段。在当前经济脆弱时期,采取积极的财政政策,扩大在民生领域的财政支出,是带动当前经济增长和奠定未来发展基础的最佳政策选择。
Based on the consumption theory under Hall’s uncertain conditions, a model for the analysis of consumption decision-making was established and the empirical analysis was conducted by using the provincial panel data from 1992 to 2008 in our country. The results show that both tax deduction and expansion of government spending have a positive impact on consumption; investment gains will reduce consumption. In a recession, tax cuts and increased fiscal expenditures are effective means of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand. In the current period of economic fragility, adopting a proactive fiscal policy and expanding fiscal expenditure in the area of people’s livelihood are the best policy choices that will drive the current economic growth and lay the foundation for future development.