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当前,电动汽车发展受到了国内外的普遍重视。电动汽车被认为具有经济、节能、环保等优点。本文基于我国当前的能源结构和技术水平,重新计算并对比了我国电动汽车与燃油汽车的综合效益。首先,从全周期的视角出发,计算了电动汽车相对于传统汽车的节能效益和CO2减排效益;然后,从全寿命的角度出发,比较了电动汽车与燃油汽车的全寿命经济成本。结果表明:在目前我国能源结构下,电动汽车能耗高出燃油汽车31.36%,CO2排放量高出17.9%,而且经济成本高出26.9%。当火电站发电量的比例下降到55.5%及以下后,电动汽车的能耗和CO2排放量都将低于燃油汽车。最后,基于上述研究结论为我国电动汽车产业的发展路线提出若干建议。
At present, the development of electric vehicles has received universal attention at home and abroad. Electric cars are considered economical, energy saving, environmental protection and other advantages. Based on China’s current energy structure and technology, this paper recalculates and compares the comprehensive benefits of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles in China. First of all, from the perspective of the whole cycle, the energy-saving benefits and CO2 emission reduction benefits of electric vehicles relative to conventional automobiles are calculated. Then, the full-life economic costs of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are compared from the perspective of full life. The results show that under the current energy structure of our country, the energy consumption of electric vehicles is 31.36% higher than that of fuel vehicles, CO2 emission is 17.9% higher, and the economic cost is 26.9% higher. When the ratio of generating capacity of thermal power plants drops to below 55.5%, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of electric vehicles will be lower than that of fuel vehicles. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of electric vehicle industry in our country.