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一、前言十一届三中全会以来,在党的富民政策鼓舞下,水土流失的治理已由过去统一治理、集体经营,逐步转向以户或联户承包治理为主;在治理措施上,由过去单一、分散治理转向按小流域为单元集中治理;在治理方式上,由过去单纯治理逐步转向经营开发性治理,使治理和开发利用结合起来,由过去边治理边破坏的情况,逐步转向防治和治管相结合。随着小流域综合治理形势的发展,就为水土保持科技工作者提出了一个亟待解决的问题,即:怎样定量的评价和分析小流域综合治理的经济效益、如何对小流域综合治理后未来的经济效益进行预测预报。本文以月塘小流域为例,试用灰色系统控制理论来进行小流域综合治理经济效益的定量分析。
I. Introduction Since the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee, inspired by the party’s policy of enriching the people, the management of soil and water loss has been dominated by unified management and collective management in the past and gradually shifted to contract-based management by households or joint-users. In terms of governance measures, In the past, the single and decentralized governance shifted to small watersheds as a unit for centralized control. On the way of governance, the past simple governance gradually shifted to management and development and management so that the combination of governance and development and utilization led to the prevention and control And management combined. With the development of the comprehensive harnessing of small watershed, a pressing issue for the scientists and technologists in water and soil conservation is put forward: how to quantitatively evaluate and analyze the economic benefits of comprehensive harnessing in small watershed and how to evaluate the future Economic forecasting and forecasting. In this paper, taking YueTan small watershed as an example, we try the gray system control theory to carry on the quantitative analysis of economic benefits of comprehensive management of small watershed.