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美元周期不仅对主要货币汇率形成冲击,其波动更直接影响全球资本流动性和配置偏好。在本轮美元升值周期中,随着特朗普新政带来美国经济和通胀预期上行,美元再度走强,新兴市场将再度面临严峻考验。人民币汇率取决于中美经济基本面及预期的此消彼长,本文分析了由外汇传导至债市和股市的风险联动路径,并分别就相关影响逻辑提出积极应对的策略。
The US dollar cycle not only impacts the major currencies but also affects the global capital liquidity and allocation preferences more directly. In the current cycle of dollar appreciation, the emerging market will once again face a severe test as the U.S. dollar plunges again as the Trump New Deal brings US economic and inflation expectations upward. The RMB exchange rate depends on the economic fundamentals of China and the United States and the expected shift in the balance. This paper analyzes the risk linkage path from foreign exchange to bond markets and stock markets, and proposes strategies to deal with them in a positive way.