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从中国省际经济增速差异存在动态变化的实际情况出发,基于1993—2012年面板数据,将全国31个省(市、区)分时段分成快速增长、中速增长与慢速增长三大类型,通过对快速增长地区与慢速增长地区的实证对比分析,探寻省域经济增长的普遍规律及其主要影响因素,并利用Oaxaca-Blinder模型对影响经济增长省际差异的因素进行分解,计算出各因素对差异的贡献率。结果表明:政府政策与市场化进程对经济增长省际差异的影响都很显著,但地区差距的缩小对政府投资的依赖程度过大,伴随投资驱动效应的不断减弱,一旦政策难以为继,落后地区很有可能陷入“梅佐乔诺陷阱”。因而培育落后地区自身发展潜力,深化落后地区市场化改革是缩小地区差距的有效途径。
Based on the actual situation of the dynamic changes of economic growth in different provinces in China, based on the panel data of 1993-2012, the sub-periods of 31 provinces (cities and districts) are divided into three types: rapid growth, medium-speed growth and slow growth , Through the comparative analysis of rapid growth areas and slow growth areas, to explore the general laws of provincial economic growth and its main influencing factors, and use Oaxaca-Blinder model to analyze the factors that affect the inter-provincial differences in economic growth to calculate The contribution of each factor to the difference. The results show that the influence of government policy and marketization process on the provincial differences in economic growth are significant. However, the narrowing of the regional disparity depends too much on the government investment. With the declining investment-driven effect, once the policy is unsustainable and backward The area is likely to fall into the trap of “Mezquogo.” Therefore, cultivating the potential for development of backward regions and deepening market-oriented reforms in backward regions are effective ways to narrow the gap between regions.