美国今年上半年的经济增长速度明显放慢,第一季度国民生产总值的增长仅为0.3％,第二季度为1.7％。这比人们年初所预期的要差得多。有人认为,美国经济将从此走向衰退。我们则觉得它还将在起伏波动中有所增长。为了正确了解美国经济形势和作出比较符合实际的预测,不妨首先分析一下美国经济这次回升的特点——增长速度大起大落。美国经济1982年底走出危机和萧条阶段,经过复苏,进入繁荣阶段。到1983年第二季度,国民生产总值按年率计算实际增长为9.4％,但到第四季度却降到5.9％,这可说是第一 In the first half of the year, the U.S. economy slowed down obviously. The GDP growth in the first quarter was only 0.3%, up from 1.7% in the second quarter. This is far worse than expected at the beginning of the year. Some people think that the U.S. economy will therefore decline. We think it will also increase in ups and downs. In order to get a correct understanding of the U.S. economic situation and make more realistic forecasts, we may first analyze the characteristics of the U.S. economy’s current recovery - its growth rate has fluctuated greatly. At the end of 1982, the U.S. economy stepped out of the crisis and recession stage and after a recovery, it entered a stage of prosperity. By the second quarter of 1983, the annual growth rate of GNP was real at 9.4%, but it dropped to 5.9% in the fourth quarter, which is the first