居民消费结构的状况和变化趋势决定着产业结构调整和优化的方向,本文利用“绝对收入论”模型对1995～2008年我国居民消费结构变动的数据进行计量分析,从而对我国未来几年的消费结构的状况进行预测,并根据预测结果对未来几年我国产业结构调整的方向进行了简单的预测,这无疑对我国产业结构的调整方向具有一定的指导意义。 The status and changing trend of residents’ consumption structure determine the direction of industrial structure adjustment and optimization. In this paper, we use the “absolute income theory” model to analyze the data of China’s resident consumption structure changes from 1995 to 2008, Based on the predicted results, a simple forecast is made on the direction of China’s industrial restructuring in the next few years, which undoubtedly has some guiding significance for the direction of the readjustment of China’s industrial structure.