一、流行病学模型的建立流行病学模型是由密切相关的流行病学因素组成,能反映出流行过程的动力学体系。建立模型的目的是更合理地应用目前的预防和治疗措施及现有的物力,改进传染性疾病的控制和治疗。同一种疾病可建立起几种不同的模型,各自适用于特定的目的,但也不排除同一种模型可有几种用途。在公共卫生实践中,建立起简单的、目的明确的模型,以用于设计和评价控制疾病的方案,比建立虽然全面、但实际用途不多的大型综合性体系更为适宜。这并不否定建立模型的科学重要 First, the establishment of epidemiological model Epidemiological model is closely related to the epidemiological components, can reflect the dynamics of the epidemic system. The purpose of the model is to make more rational use of current prevention and treatment measures and available resources to improve the control and treatment of infectious diseases. The same disease can be established several different models, each adapted to a specific purpose, but does not rule out the same model can have several uses. In public health practice, it is more appropriate to establish a simple and purposeful model for the design and evaluation of disease control programs rather than for the establishment of a comprehensive, but not practical, large-scale integrated system. This does not deny the scientific importance of model building