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中国市场经济体系还具有较强的政府主导性质,这会妨碍经济增长从要素驱动向创新驱动的转变。原因在于,相对于市场主导,政府主导型经济的创新激励更低。创新活动在本质上具有不确定性、长期性、多阶段性和动态依赖性,这决定了其价值的关键部分由复合实物期权构成。政府主导下的激励机制会降低这些期权的执行概率,进而降低其期初价值。创新价值降低促使政府主导型经济的增长动力更多地倾向于要素驱动,而非创新驱动。我们利用跨国面板数据检验这一理论命题,实证结果稳健地支持了相关假设。政策含义在于,转变经济发展方式需要更深入的市场化改革。
China’s market economy system also has a strong government-led nature, which will hinder the economic growth from element-driven to innovation-driven transformation. The reason is that the government-led economy has lower incentives for innovation than the market. Innovative activities are intrinsically uncertain, long-term, multi-phased and dynamically dependent, which determines that the key component of their value consists of complex real options. Incentives led by the government will reduce the probability of execution of these options, thereby reducing their initial value. The reduction in innovation value has driven the growth drivers of the government-led economy to be more factor-driven rather than innovation-driven. We test this theoretical proposition by using cross-border panel data, and the empirical results robustly support the relevant assumptions. The policy implication is that changing the mode of economic development requires more in-depth market-oriented reforms.