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目的探讨气象因素与发热伴血小板减少综合征的关系。方法对岱山县2011—2014年气象因素和发热伴血小板减少综合征发病情况进行统计描述,对比分析有病例月和无病例月的月降水量、月平均气压、月平均风速、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度和月日照时数等气象因素是否存在差异。利用卡方自动交互检测法建立决策树对每个气象因素进行最优分割后纳入多因素Logistic回归,分析气象因素对发热伴血小板减少综合征的影响。结果月平均气压高于1 014.2 h Pa时,发热伴血小板减少综合征的发病率降低,OR值(95%CI)为0.026(0.003~0.223);月平均气温高于19.65℃和月平均相对湿度大于74.5%时,发热伴血小板减少综合征的发病率升高,OR值(95%CI)分别为12.889(2.307~72.016)和13.417(3.042~59.171)。结论月平均气压低于1 014.2 h Pa、月平均气温高于19.65℃和月平均相对湿度大于74.5%可能是发热伴血小板减少综合征的危险因素。
Objective To investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome. Methods The incidence of meteorological factors and fever with thrombocytopenia from 2011 to 2014 in Daishan County was statistically analyzed. The monthly precipitation, monthly mean air pressure, monthly average wind speed, monthly average temperature, and monthly The average relative humidity and monthly sunshine hours and other weather factors are different. The decision tree was established by using the automatic cross-detection method of chi-square to divide each meteorological factor into multivariate Logistic regression and analyze the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of fever with thrombocytopenia. Results When the mean monthly mean air pressure was higher than 1 014.2 hPa, the incidence of fever with thrombocytopenia decreased, with OR (95% CI) of 0.026 (0.003-0.223). The monthly mean air temperature was higher than 19.65 ℃ and the monthly average relative humidity The incidence of fever with thrombocytopenia was higher than 74.5%. The odds ratio (95% CI) was 12.889 (2.307 ~ 72.016) and 13.417 (3.042 ~ 59.171), respectively. Conclusions The monthly mean air pressure is lower than 1 014.2 hPa, the average monthly temperature is above 19.65 ℃, and the monthly average relative humidity is above 74.5%. It may be the risk factor of fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome.