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针对工程项目投资中采用现有的方法估算不可预见费存在的不足,以超高压基建工程为例,构建了不可预见费估算理论模型,分析了超高压基建工程实施过程中存在的风险,并对各风险进行分类筛选,进而确定风险等级,再利用模糊专家系统估算工程的不可预见费。算例应用结果表明,基于风险分析和模糊专家系统来估算超高压基建工程不可预见费用的方法可行、有效,且估算误差均在10%以内。
In view of the shortcomings of using existing methods to estimate unforeseeable expenses in the project investment, this paper constructs an unforeseeable cost estimation theoretical model based on the UHV infrastructure project and analyzes the risks existing in the implementation of the UHV infrastructure project. The risk of classification and screening, and then determine the risk level, and then use fuzzy expert system to estimate the project’s unforeseen costs. The application of the example shows that it is feasible and effective to estimate the unforeseeable cost of the EHV infrastructural project based on the risk analysis and the fuzzy expert system, and the estimation error is less than 10%.