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1992—2014年中国木质林产品出口总值增长37.7倍,年均增长率达到17.94%;而原木进口总值增长25.6倍,年均增长率为15.89%。原木进口与木质林产品出口存在相同的增长趋势。文中以原木进口总值和木质林产品出口总值数据为基础建立VECM模型,并通过正交化脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析证明,中国原木进口与林产品出口之间存在正相关关系,原木进口显著推动了中国木质林产品的出口,但原木的供应不足也将制约林产品出口规模的进一步扩大。因此,缓解原木供求矛盾和优化林产品出口结构成为推动林产品贸易健康发展亟待解决的问题。
From 1992 to 2014, the total export value of China’s woody forest products increased by 37.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 17.94%; while the total value of imports of timber increased 25.6 times with an average annual growth rate of 15.89%. Log imports and exports of wood products have the same growth trend. In this paper, the VECM model is established based on the total value of timber imports and the total value of export of timber forest products. The orthogonal impulse response function and analysis of variance analysis show that there is a positive correlation between Chinese timber imports and forest products exports. Significantly promoted the export of woody forest products in China, but insufficient supply of logs will also restrict the further expansion of forest products export. Therefore, alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand of wood and optimizing the export structure of forest products has become a problem to be solved urgently to promote the healthy development of forest products trade.