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在信息不完备条件下如何有效预测能源消费总量以把握宏观经济发展趋势,是制定能源规划的基础内容.伴随我国成为全球经济增长重要引擎,能源消费量越来越大,能源安全问题也备受关注.选用灰色系统模型、三次指数平滑模型和BP神经网络模型三种预测模型,应用Shapley值权重分配法确定各预测模型的权重,从而构建组合预测模型并对我国能源消费进行组合预测.在保持过去发展规律基本不变的条件下,2014年能源需求总量为383,718.16万吨标准煤,到2020年将达462,089.33万吨标准煤.2013-2020年能源需求总量年均增长率为3.38%.
How to effectively predict the total energy consumption under the condition of incomplete information to grasp the macroeconomic development trend is the basis of formulating energy planning.With China becoming an important engine of global economic growth, energy consumption is increasing and energy security The gray system model, the three exponential smoothing model and the BP neural network model are selected as three kinds of forecasting models, and the weight of each forecasting model is determined by using the Shapley value weight distribution method to construct a combined forecasting model and make a combined forecast of the energy consumption in China. Under the condition of basically unchanged development rules in the past, the total energy demand in 2014 will be 3.8318166 million tons of standard coal and will reach 4.668 trillion tons of standard coal by 2020. The average annual growth rate of total energy demand in 2013-2020 is 3.38% .