Cracks in the Roof of the World

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  AS the Tibetan Plateau is considered the globe’s Third Pole, changes in its environment are closely linked to the environment and ecosystem of the world, Eurasia in particular.
  The Hindu Kush Himalayan region spans an area of more than 4.3 million square km in China, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. It has more ice and snow than anywhere else in the world outside the polar regions, hence the name Third Pole. According to the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the area contains the world’s tallest mountains, including all 14 peaks above 8,000 meters, is the source of 10 major rivers, and forms a formidable global ecological buffer.
  However, a recent report by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), on environmental changes on the world’s highest plateau says as a result of global warming and human activity, the plateau is becoming both warmer and moister, and natural disasters are on the rise. But despite dark projections of longterm climate-change effects, the Tibetan Plateau remains one of the world’s cleanest expanses.
   Forecasts of change
  The report reviews the changes on the plateau over the past 2,000 years and forecasts its environmental evolution in the coming century. This has been achieved through the efforts of more than 70 specialists from China, the United States, Sweden, Canada and other countries.
  The data show the plateau has become more hot and humid, particularly over the past 50 years. The average annual temperature in the region rose by 0.3-0.4 degree Celsius every 10 years from 1960 to 2012, about twice the average of the rest of the world. Temperatures rose more sharply during winter compared to historical averages, as well as in the northern part of the plateau.
  Ice core records show that temperatures rose the most during the 20th century. The next 100 years may see the plateau warming by up to 4 degrees Celsius.
  Xu Baiqing, a researcher with the ITP and an author of the report, said high-altitude areas are more vulnerable to global warming. So it is worrying but not surprising that temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau rose faster than the global average. What is worse is that the rising temperatures are accompanied by retreating glaciers, disappearing permafrost and increasing natural disasters.
  According to the report, glaciers on the plateau have been decreasing in size since the 20th century due to rising temperatures, and at a faster rate since the 1990s. Glacier shrinkage is the most prominent in the Himalayan Mountains and southeast Tibet, in the Karakoram and Western Kunlun Mountain region.   Due to glacial melting, both the number and area of the lakes on the plateau have increased notably. The number of lakes exceeding 1 square km climbed from 1,081 in the 1970s to 1,236 in 2010; nearly 80 percent of the lakes in the region have been expanding.
  ICIMOD’s website states that mountain systems are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Third Pole region is home to some of the people most vulnerable to these changes. Changes in the river systems and their basins have directly impacted the wellbeing of millions of people.
  Xu said that against the backdrop of global warming, glacier loss is not unique to the Tibetan Plateau, but a common crisis that all plateaus are facing. Still, as ICIMOD has noted, as the rate of warming in the Third Pole region is significantly higher than the glo
  bal average, and the rate is higher at higher altitudes, it suggests“a greater vulnerability of the cryosphere environment to climate change.”
   Threats from nature
  Just as alarming is the increasing number of natural disasters on the Tibetan Plateau. The report says disasters - landslides, torrential floods and avalanches - are expected to increase in the coming years; also, fires will be more difficult to prevent and extinguish.
  The data in the report show that about 1,500 mountain torrents were reported on the plateau from 1950 to 2010, when strong and fast-moving wa-ter rushed down the slopes. The worst was in 1998 when more than 50 counties in the Tibet Autonomous Region were affected.
  Frozen lakes and barrier lakes on the plateau are also posing a threat as more than 20 have overflowed during the course of the 20th century, leading to severe flooding in the region.
  This region has one of the major forested areas in China and the risk of fire is high due to strong winds and a decrease in rain and snow. From 1988 to 2014, over 370 forest fires were reported. In addition, the scale of snow storms and avalanches has markedly expanded over the past 40 years due to climate change and human activities.


   Government efforts
  According to the report, airborne pollutants on the plateau have increased by 200 percent since the 1950s. However, both black carbon, a climate-changing agent that heats the atmosphere and warms Earth, and persistent organic pollutants remain at a relatively low level, which is close to or lower than in the Arctic or the Alps. Though the level of heavy metal recorded in the ice and lake cores of the plateau is higher than or similar to that in the South and North Pole regions, it is much lower in most areas.   Zhang Xianzhou, a researcher with the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research under CAS, told reporters the report shows the ecological environment of the Tibetan Plateau has been well preserved despite the onset of global warming and an increase of human activities in the region.
  Xie Pengyun, Deputy Director of the ITP, said the sound ecological status quo of the plateau is linked to the efforts of the central and regional governments.
  The Xinhua News Agency reported that in order to protect the fragile environment of the plateau, the regional government banned the mining of gold dust in 2006 and the exploitation of iron sand in 2008 as mining in Tibet had caused severe environmental damage. Fifty-six renovation projects had been carried out by 2010, in areas with a total size of 77.11 square km. Forty mining companies that failed to meet environmental standards were closed in 2010. By 2010, areas with registered mining rights covered only 749.62 square km, less than 0.1 percent of Tibet’s total area, thanks to tightened controls.
  Xu of the ITP also said that Tibet’s energy consumption mainly relies on clean energy, which means less pollution compared to densely populated areas.
  Some experts said that despite the permafrost retreating and the partial desertification of the Tibetan Plateau, the ecosystem is improving overall with vegetation coverage increasing remarkably. The boundaries of frigid and sub-frigid zones are moving westward and northward respectively, and the temperate zone is expanding.
  As the Tibetan Plateau becomes warmer and moister, it will become more suitable for vegetation growth and human habitation and production, said Xu. The report adds that arable land on the plateau has been expanding since the mid-1970s, which is helping increase the incomes of farmers and herdsmen.
  Nevertheless, the report calls for more government efforts to protect the ecology of the plateau. It suggests a model green zone be established on Changtang, a high-altitude plateau in north Tibet and also China’s highest vulnerable environment, which will be a safe and clean habitat for wild animals such as Tibetan antelopes and yaks. CA
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