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湖南是一个农业大省,也是我国重要的粮棉油生产基地,但由于受到气候与地理双重因素的制约,降水时空分布不均,农业干旱灾害频发。以农作物受灾率和成灾率异常指数作为旱情评价指标,统计分析湖南较长时段内旱灾时间分布规律及波动趋势,在此基础上运用灰色系统理论与预测方法,借助MATLAB软件建立旱灾重灾年份的灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型,依据模型对未来15年湖南省农业干旱重灾年份进行预测分析并得出结论。结果表明,今后15年间湖南将出现4个重灾年份,预计分别在2017~2018年、2019~2020年、2022~2023年和2026~2028年期间,且2027—2028可能发生特大旱灾。
Hunan is a major agricultural province and also an important base for producing grain, cotton and oil in China. However, due to the constraints of climate and geography, Hunan enjoys uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space and frequent agricultural drought disasters. Taking the anomaly index of crop disaster rate and disaster-hit rate as drought evaluation index, the distribution regularity and fluctuation trend of drought time in Hunan were statistically analyzed. Based on this, the gray system theory and prediction method were used to establish the year of drought disaster Based on the model, the prediction and analysis of the year of severe agricultural arid disaster in Hunan Province in the next 15 years is made and the conclusion is reached. The results show that there will be four years of heavy losses in Hunan in the next 15 years. It is estimated that severe drought may occur in 2017-2018, 2019-2020, 2022-2023 and 2026-2028, respectively, and 2027-2028.