煤炭是钢铁生产的主要原燃料,近期钢材价格回暖,焦炭行业欲联手提价,钢铁企业对冶金用煤价格是否上涨心存疑虑。冶金用煤早已实现市场化,价格走势受宏观形势、供求关系、运输条件、季节性等因素影响,随着近几年来煤炭产能的迅速释放以及铁路运力的提高,今年的煤炭供应已大于需求。笔者认为今年冶金用煤后市整体呈现稳中趋降走势,喷吹煤、瘦煤、1/3焦煤等品种将率先降价,个别紧缺品种可能在高位波动。一、煤炭供应大于需求,库存量增加,产能总体过剩压力显现,冶金用煤价格将逐步回落国家发改委在今年煤炭产运需衔接会上公布:2006年中国煤炭总需求为22.5亿吨,其中国内需求21.7亿吨,出口0.8亿吨;截止2005年4月,全国拥有煤炭生产许可证能力为22.6亿吨,煤炭供应已略大于2006年的总需求。2001—2004年,中国煤炭产量翻了一番,由9.9 Coal is the main raw material for steel production. Recently, the prices of steel products have picked up. The coke industry wants to jointly raise prices. Iron and steel enterprises have doubts about whether metallurgical coal prices will rise. Metallurgical coal has long been marketized. The price trend is influenced by the macroeconomic situation, supply and demand, transportation conditions and seasonal factors. With the rapid release of coal capacity in recent years and the improvement of railway transport capacity, the coal supply this year has surpassed the demand. The author believes that metallurgical coal market outlook this year, the overall trend of steady decline, blowing coal, lean, 1/3 coking coal and other varieties will be the first price cuts, individual short varieties may fluctuate in the high. First, the supply of coal is greater than demand, inventories increased, the overall excess pressure on production capacity appears, the price of metallurgical coal will gradually decline National Development and Reform Commission announced at this year’s meeting of coal production and transportation convergence: China’s total coal demand in 2006 was 2.25 billion tons, of which China With a demand of 2.17 billion tons and an export of 80 million tons. By April 2005, the country had a capacity of 2.26 billion tons of coal production licenses and the coal supply was slightly larger than the total demand in 2006. In 2001-2004, China’s coal production doubled from 9.9