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本文选用2009—2014年沪深两市927家上市公司的季度财务数据,将其按照三季度资产负债率的大小分为“低”、“中”、“高”三组,从时间差异的角度分组研究上市公司三季度资本结构的变化趋势对四季度实施盈余管理操纵的影响。研究发现:(1)四季度的应计盈余管理与三季度的负债比例呈“U形”关系,拐点为0.29。(2)四季度的真实盈余管理与三季度的负债比例呈正相关关系;其中,四季度销售性经营现金流量操纵与负债比例呈“U形”关系,拐点是0.24;而生产性成本操纵和酌量性费用操纵与三季度资本结构的变化呈正相关关系。研究证实了盈余管理行为存在时间差异性,四季度实施盈余管理行为的动机与三季度的资本结构趋势有关,可以为资本市场的监管提供借鉴。
This paper selects the quarterly financial data of 927 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2014 and divides them into three groups of “low”, “medium” and “high” according to the third quarter of the asset-liability ratio , This paper divides into groups from the perspective of time difference to study the effect of the change trend of listed companies’ capital structure in the third quarter on the implementation of earnings management in the fourth quarter. The study found that: (1) The relationship between accruals in the fourth quarter and the debt ratio in the third quarter presented a “U-shaped” relationship with an inflection point of 0.29. (2) The real earnings management in the fourth quarter was positively correlated with the debt ratio in the third quarter. Among them, the fourth quarter sales operating cash flow control and debt ratio showed a “U-shaped” relationship with an inflection point of 0.24; while the production cost control And the discretionary cost manipulation and the third quarter changes in the capital structure was positively correlated. The research confirms the time difference of earnings management behavior. The motivation of implementing earnings management in the fourth quarter is related to the trend of capital structure in the third quarter, which can provide reference for the supervision of the capital market.