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汇率与国际收支的短期动态关系一直是理论和经验研究争论的热点问题。本文从“S曲线”假说的经验性规律出发,分别从贸易总量和双边贸易的角度研究了人民币汇率短期波动与中国国际收支之间的关系。结论表明,在总量层面上,“S曲线”假说并不适用于中国,但是中国与主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易额和双边实际有效汇率较好地支持了“S曲线”假说。另外,统计推导和经验研究都表明,“S曲线”假说对于贸易伙伴在中国贸易总额中的份额、贸易收支波动性和双边汇率波动性均具有较强的敏感性。
The short-term dynamic relationship between exchange rate and the balance of payments has been a hot issue in both theoretical and empirical research. Based on the empirical law of “S curve ” hypothesis, this paper studies the relationship between short-term fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and China’s balance of payments from the perspective of trade volume and bilateral trade respectively. The conclusion shows that the “S-Curve” hypothesis does not apply to China at the aggregate level, but the bilateral trade volume and bilateral real effective exchange rate between China and major trading partners better support the “S-Curve” hypothesis . In addition, both statistical derivation and empirical studies show that the “S-curve” hypothesis is strongly sensitive to the trade partners’ share of China’s total trade, trade balance and bilateral exchange rate volatility.