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针对探井油、气、水层识别中的诸多不确定性因素，提出了综合识别的概率法。即用概率论中的贝叶斯（ＢＡＹＥＳ）公式计算出各参数条件下不同产层类型的概率值，根据专家经验赋予不同参数以不同的权值，进而取得探区的油、气、水层综合识别的概率模型。编制成计算机程序后，在松辽盆地西部葡西、新站地区实际应用，综合识别效果良好。
Aiming at the many uncertain factors in oil well, gas and water layer identification, a probabilistic method of comprehensive identification is proposed. Probability theory Bayesian (BAYES) formula to calculate the probability of different types of production under the conditions of various parameters, according to expert experience given different parameters with different weights, and then get the exploration area of oil, gas and water Probabilistic model of integrated identification. Compiled into a computer program, in the west of Songliao Basin, Puxi, a new station area practical application, comprehensive identification effect is good.