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针对陆浑灌区极端天气频发的问题,利用陆浑灌区1951~2013年逐日气象资料,采用小波分析对灌区降水量、平均气温及作物需水量(ET0)进行一般趋势分析及多时间尺度周期分析,运用Mann-Kendall法对各气象要素进行突变检验。结果表明,陆浑灌区的年降水量呈下降趋势,其中秋季降水减少对灌区年降水量下降贡献最大;气温、ET0呈上升趋势,春季气温上升对灌区气温升高贡献最大,夏季ET0的增加对灌区ET0增加贡献最大;陆浑灌区气温突变点在1998年,ET0的突变点在1974、2012年,灌区降水量年际变化不稳定使得突变点较多,分别在1958、1981、1986年;气温与ET0的波动主周期高度一致,均为7、17、30年,说明气温对灌区ET0的贡献相对较大。
According to the daily weather data from 1951 to 2013 in Luhun Irrigation District, a general trend analysis and multi-time scale periodic analysis of rainfall, average temperature and crop water requirement (ET0) in the irrigation area were conducted by using wavelet analysis. , Using Mann-Kendall method to test the mutation of each meteorological element. The results showed that the annual precipitation in Luhun irrigation area showed a downward trend, of which the decrease of autumn rainfall contributed the most to the annual precipitation decline of the irrigation area. The temperature and ET0 showed an upward trend. The rising of spring temperature contributed the most to the increase of temperature in irrigation area. In 1998, the abrupt change point of ET0 was in 1974 and 2012, and the instability of annual precipitation in the irrigation area caused more mutation points, which were respectively in 1958, 1981 and 1986; the temperature It is 7, 17, 30 years highly consistent with the main period of fluctuation of ET0, which shows that the contribution of temperature to ET0 in irrigation area is relatively large.