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为探索登革热发病与伊蚊种群动态变化和气候因素的关系 ,为登革热的防治和监测提供科学依据 ,收集广东省 1990～ 2 0 0 1年的登革热发病资料 ,及潮州市 1995～ 2 0 0 1年伊蚊媒介监测资料及同期的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、日照时间、降雨量、相对湿度等气象资料 ,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析的方法进行分析。结果显示 ,登革热发病的Logistic回归方程 :p(1) =1 [1+e- (- 7 750 +0 391BI) ]。与布雷图指数 (breteauindex,BI)有关的气象因素是 :降雨量 (X2 )、日照时间、降雨天数、平均气温 (X1 )、最低平均气温、相对湿度(X3) ;回归分析得到回归方程 :^YBI=2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1 +0 0 2 0X2 - 0 418X3。结论 :气候因素对伊蚊媒介密度的影响是复杂的 ,但其主要影响因素是最低平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度 ;影响登革热发病的主要因素是布雷图指数 (BI)。
In order to explore the relationship between the incidence of Dengue fever and the population dynamics and climatic factors of Aedes mosquitoes, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and surveillance of dengue fever, we collected the data of Dengue Fever from 1990 to 2001 in Guangdong Province and the data of Dengue from 1995 to 2001 Aedes aegypti media monitoring data and the corresponding mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, sunshine duration, rainfall, relative humidity and other meteorological data were analyzed by correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that Logistic regression equation of incidence of dengue fever: p (1) = 1 [1 + e- (-7 750 + 0 391BI)]. The meteorological factors related to breteau index (BI) are: rainfall (X2), sunshine hours, rainfall days, average temperature (X1), lowest average temperature and relative humidity (X3) YBI = 2 4 80 0 +0 82 6X1 +0 0 2 0X2 - 0 418X3. CONCLUSION: The climatic factors have a complex impact on the density of Aedes mosquitoes, but the main influencing factors are the lowest mean temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. The main factor affecting the incidence of dengue fever is the Brett Index (BI).