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本文在放松信贷配给行业均衡性的基础上,利用VAR模型考察了我国1994-2012年间信贷配给结构对服务贸易及货物贸易影响差异,在此基础上判断我国信贷配给的行业非均衡性是否引起了我国服务贸易出口能力的不足进而造成了出口贸易结构的失衡,得出结论:中国信贷结构更加有利于货物贸易的出口增长,而对服务贸易的出口促进效应不显著。随着这种非对称性信贷机制的不断强化,我国货物贸易的出口能力将远大于服务贸易的出口能力,进而导致出口贸易结构的失衡。
On the basis of relaxing the equilibrium of the credit rationing industry, this paper uses the VAR model to examine the impact of China’s credit rationing structure on service trade and goods trade between 1994 and 2012, and on this basis, to determine whether the industry’s credit imbalance in the industry is caused by non-equilibrium. The inadequacy of the export capacity of China’s service trade has led to an imbalance in the structure of export trade and concluded that China’s credit structure is more conducive to the growth of exports of goods trade, while the effect of promoting exports of service trade is not significant. With the continuous strengthening of this asymmetrical credit mechanism, the export capacity of China’s goods trade will be much greater than the export capacity of service trade, and this will lead to an imbalance in the structure of export trade.