首先阐述了景象可导航性分析的定义 ,指出正确匹配概率是评价景象可导航性的重要指标 ;接着假定预处理后的基准图和附加噪声是零均值随机场 ;然后从图像的内容性质和其统计特性两个方面出发进行了推导 ,给出了基于景象灰度相关匹配的自主导航系统的正确匹配概率的一个估计模型。通过遥感图像的大量试验结果表明 :该匹配概率的估计模型优于一般的仿真模型 ,从而为景象匹配自主导航系统的设计提供理论和应用基础 Firstly, the definition of scene navigability analysis is described. It is pointed out that the correct matching probability is an important index to evaluate the navigability of the scene. Then, it is assumed that the preprocessed baseline and additional noise are zero-mean random fields. Then, Statistical characteristics of two aspects proceed to derive, given based on scene gray correlation matching autonomous navigation system, an accurate matching probability of an estimation model. The results of a large number of experiments using remote sensing images show that the estimation model of the matching probability is better than the general simulation model, so as to provide theory and application basis for the design of scene matching autonomous navigation system