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文章在阐述各城镇化阶段工业集聚影响城市利用外资机制的基础上,构建了一个含城镇化门槛效应的FDI区位选择模型,运用2003~2013年间中国283个地级以上城市面板数据进行检验。研究发现,工业集聚影响城市外资的城镇化阶段性特征较为明显,且以估计的36%城镇化率为门槛值,该影响会呈现“倒U型”变化轨迹。分组回归结果表明,在较低城镇化阶段,由适度工业集聚产生的规模经济和技术溢出效应等正外部性对城市利用外资有着正向作用;而在较高城镇化阶段,由过度工业集聚产生的拥挤成本等负外部性则会对城市利用外资形成抑制作用。
Based on the explanation of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration influencing the use of foreign investment in cities during the urbanization phase, this paper constructs a FDI location selection model with threshold effect of urbanization and examines the data of 283 cities above prefecture level in China from 2003 to 2013. The study finds that the urbanization stage characteristics of industrial agglomeration that affect urban foreign investment are obvious, and the estimated urbanization rate of 36% is the threshold value, and the impact will show a “U-shaped” trajectory. The results of the group regression show that in the stage of lower urbanization, the positive externalities such as economies of scale and technology spillover caused by moderate industrial agglomeration play a positive role in the utilization of foreign capital in urban areas; in the stage of higher urbanization, excessive industrial agglomeration produces Congestion costs and other negative externalities will inhibit the use of foreign capital in cities.