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为评估我国唐氏综合征产前诊断3种策略的经济学效果,此研究通过决策树模型对3种策略的成本效果进行决策分析。研究结果表明孕中期二联、孕中期三联及孕早期二联联合孕中期二联分别可以使每万名孕妇减少唐氏综合征出生数为1.707例、2.049例和2.000例。三种策略使得每万名孕妇因实施诊断程序引起正常胎儿流产的人数分别为0.665例、0.774例和0.824例。3种策略的成本—效果比分别为每避免1例唐氏综合征416 457.5元、430 979.5元和398 362.5元。单从经济的角度上看,策略3优于策略2,策略2优于策略1。
To evaluate the economics of the three strategies for prenatal diagnosis of Down Syndrome in our country, this study conducts decision analysis on the cost effectiveness of the three strategies through a decision tree model. The results show that the second trimester of pregnancy, trimester and trimester in early trimester combined with second trimester twin pregnancy can reduce the number of births per million pregnant women Down’s syndrome was 1.707 cases, 2.049 cases and 2.000 cases. The three strategies led to 0.665, 0.774 and 0.824 cases of normal fetal abortion per 10,000 pregnant women due to the implementation of diagnostic procedures. The cost-effectiveness ratios of the three strategies were 416 457.5 yuan, 430 979.5 yuan and 398 362.5 yuan for each case of avoiding Down’s syndrome. From an economic perspective alone, Strategy 3 outperformed Strategy 2 and Strategy 2 outperformed Strategy 1 alone.