目前我区对稻飞虱、稻纵卷叶螟的预测均是以中、短期为主,并且依靠气象因子,受气象预报准确度的限制.长期预报缺乏必要的手段,本文试图不根据外界环境因子,在已有历史资料的基础上,采用灰色理论对大发生的长期预测进行探讨. At present, the prediction of rice planthoppers and rice leaf roller is in the medium and short term, and depends on meteorological factors, which are limited by the accuracy of weather forecasting.Long-term forecast lacks the necessary means, and this paper attempts not to be based on the external environment Factor, based on the existing historical data, the gray theory is used to discuss the long-term prediction of large occurrence.