针对现行放顶煤开采采出量及采出率确定方法 ,推导出了其计算值的误差估计模型 ;根据兖州南屯矿实际数据 ,计算出了误差估计模型中的相应参数 (即由统计产量折算实测产量所需参数 )的相似维、实验及理论变异函数 ;基于地质统计学理论 ,得到了 3种采样方法、不同采样间距与上述参数的估计误差、采出量相对误差的关系 .研究表明 ,采用地质统计学、分形几何、误差理论等方法 ,可以有效地解决放顶煤开采采出量的误差估计、测量或采样最佳方案选取及有关标准制定问题 ,具有重要的实用价值与学术价值 According to the current method of determining the production and the recovery rate of caving coal, the error estimation model of the calculated value is deduced. According to the actual data of Nantun mine in Yanzhou, the corresponding parameters in the error estimation model Based on the theory of geostatistics, we get the relationship between the three sampling methods, the different sampling interval and the estimated error of the above parameters, the relative error of the production volume.Research shows that , Using methods such as geostatistics, fractal geometry, error theory, etc., can effectively solve the error of caving coal mining output estimates, measurement or sampling the best program selection and related standards development issues, has important practical value and academic value