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利用2003-2013年中国十大城市群所涉及的100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用混合OLS方法,阐述了人口、产业集聚等因素的动态演化对环境污染影响的异质性。结果显示:工业废水排放量与城市群人口集聚度之间呈“倒U”型曲线关系,而工业二氧化硫和烟(粉)尘则与之呈“U”型曲线关系;随着人口集聚度的提高,产业专业化集聚对环境污染有先抑制后促进的作用,而产业多样化集聚则因污染物各异而呈现出不同的外部效应;城市群行政分割程度的加强会加重废水排放,但有利于减少二氧化硫、烟(粉)尘的排放。因此,各地区在城市群发展过程中应利用其“圈层”的结构特点,根据适度集聚原则确定群内人口的集聚度、产业的集聚模式。
Using the panel data of 100 cities at the prefecture level and above involved in the top 10 cities in China from 2003 to 2013, a hybrid OLS method was used to describe the heterogeneity of the impact of the dynamic evolution of population and industrial agglomeration on environmental pollution. The results show that the relation between industrial wastewater discharge and urban agglomeration is “inverted U” curve, while the industrial sulfur dioxide and smoke (dust) show a “U” curve. With the The increase of population agglomeration, the industrial specialization agglomeration has the effect of inhibiting and promoting the environmental pollution first, and the diversification of industrial agglomeration presents different external effects due to the different pollutants; the intensification of administrative division of urban agglomeration will increase the waste water Emissions, but conducive to reducing sulfur dioxide, smoke (dust) emissions. Therefore, all regions should take advantage of the structural characteristics of their “circle ” in the development of urban agglomerations and determine the degree of agglomeration and the pattern of industrial agglomeration according to the principle of proper agglomeration.