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This paper presents a probabilistic reliability method for the welded shell during crack growth. The crack growth model incorporated with a failure assessment diagram(FAD), which can provides a better estimation of the critical crack length, is developed to describe fatigue failure. All variables for particular welded joints of the shell are studied. Among them, the stress variables are based on the calculated stress by using the finite element (FE) code ANSYS. Fatigue reliability analysis of the welded shell is performed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The failure probability curve of the example kiln is significantly useful to determine the repair schedule of shell cracks.