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2004年底中央决定将实施6年之久的积极财政政策调整为稳健型财政政策,本文从财政风险变化角度解释财政政策转型的依据。本文通过对两大类、共16个指标反映的财政风险程度的单独和综合分析,认为积极财政政策的实施在总体上减低了财政风险程度。尽管某些直接关联指标体现的财政风险程度有所上升,但总体上我们具有继续实施积极财政政策的财政能力;而社会经济运行本身的发展态势却使积极财政政策的继续实施失去了必要性条件。因此,积极财政政策转型为稳健型财政政策是恰逢其时的。
At the end of 2004, the central government decided to adjust the active fiscal policy of 6 years to a sound fiscal policy. This article explains the basis for the fiscal policy transformation from the perspective of changes in fiscal risk. Through a single and comprehensive analysis of the degree of financial risk reflected by 16 categories of indicators in two categories, this paper argues that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy generally reduces the degree of financial risk. Although some of the directly related indicators reflect the increase in the level of financial risk, overall we have the financial capability to continue implementing the proactive fiscal policy. However, the development of the social economy itself has made the necessary conditions for the continued implementation of the proactive fiscal policy . Therefore, the transition from a proactive fiscal policy to a more prudent fiscal policy is of the utmost importance.