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基于2000—2010年NECR/NECP的500hPa位势场资料,用EOF时空分解方法和动力模型重构思想,通过遗传算法的全局优化搜索和并行计算途径,开展了500hPa位势场动力预报模型反演,建立了刻画副高活动的非线性动力预报模型,实现了副高活动的中长期预报.模型预报试验表明,该模型对副高的中长期活动,尤其是异常活动能够较好地描述和预报,进而为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路.
Based on the 500hPa geopotential field data of NECR / NECP from 2000 to 2010, using EOF spatio-temporal decomposition method and dynamic model reconstruction method, the 500hPa geopotential model inversion was carried out by global optimization search of GA and parallel computing. , A nonlinear dynamic forecasting model was established to describe the activities of the subtropical high and the middle and long term forecast of the subtropical high activities was realized.The model forecasting experiments show that the model can describe and forecast the mid and long term activities of the subtropical high, especially the anomalous activities , And then explores a new way of thinking for the prediction of the sub-higher complex weather system.