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针对供应中断风险,研究了制造商进行后备产能订购时的采购决策和主供应商的可靠性改善决策,利用报童理论建立了模型,通过非线性规划得到了制造商的最优订购策略及其改善可靠性的投资策略。通过数值分析讨论了改善可靠性的投资成本系数对制造商和供应商双方决策以及风险因素的影响。研究表明,制造商的采购策略由可靠性的上下阈值决定;可靠性的最优改善量与改善可靠性成本系数呈正比;改善可靠性给制造商和主供应商带来的收益大小与初始可靠性有关,数值分析表明当初始可靠性位于0.5附近时收益最大;改善可靠性也可以在一定程度上抵御需求波动风险。
Aiming at the risk of supply interruption, this paper studies the decision-making process of manufacturer’s reserve capacity and the reliability decision of main supplier. The model is established by the theory of Newsboy, and the manufacturer’s optimal ordering strategy and its improvement are obtained through nonlinear programming Reliability of investment strategy. Through numerical analysis, the influence of investment cost factor to improve reliability on decision making and risk factors of both manufacturers and suppliers is discussed. The research shows that the purchasing strategy of manufacturers is determined by the upper and lower thresholds of reliability. The optimal improvement of reliability is proportional to the cost coefficient of reliability improvement. The reliability and profitability of manufacturer and main supplier are the same as initial reliability The numerical analysis shows that when the initial reliability is around 0.5, the profit is the greatest. Improving the reliability can also resist the risk of fluctuation in demand to a certain extent.