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针对目前常用的汛期分期方法存在的主观性强、考虑因素单一和分期结果不确定等问题,提出利用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期。基于Fisher最优分割法的基本原理和应用步骤,以李仙江流域为例,选择反映汛期暴雨洪水特性的5个指标,将该流域的汛期划分成了4个分期,即前汛期为6月1日~6月30日,主汛期为7月1日~9月10日,过渡期为9月11日~10月31日,后汛期为11月1日~11月30日,并将Fisher最优分割法的汛期分期结果与数理统计法以及模糊集合分析法两种常用的汛期分期方法的分期结果进行比较。结果表明,Fisher最优分割法的分期结果不仅合理可信,而且相对于常用的汛期分期方法具有一定的优越性。
Aiming at the problems of subjectivity, single factors of consideration and uncertainty of staging results, the current staging method of flood season is proposed. Based on the basic principles and application steps of Fisher’s optimal segmentation method, taking Li Xianjiang basin as an example, five indicators reflecting the characteristics of flood and flood during flood season are selected, and the flood season of the basin is divided into four phases, that is, the first flood season is June 1 ~ June 30, the main flood season is July 1 to September 10, the transition period is September 11 to October 31, the latter flood season is November 1 to November 30, and Fisher optimal The staging results of the flood season of the segmentation method are compared with the staging results of the two common flood season staging methods, such as mathematical statistics method and fuzzy set analysis method. The results show that the staging result of Fisher’s optimal segmentation method is not only reasonable and credible, but also has some advantages over the commonly used staging method of flood season.