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Imagine this： A free trade area spanning China to Japan， across to India down to New Zealand， a region covering a hulk of the AsiaPacific， its diversity of nations， political systems， languages， religions and cultures. Given that China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN）， a 10-country economic bloc， already have a free trade agreement， expanding it further shouldn’t seem so outlandish.
There has been mounting outcry from both China and ASEAN to upgrade the free trade area the two sides built in 2010， which covers one fourth of the world’s population and is the largest among developing countries. A larger free trade bloc covering India， Japan， South Korea， Australia and New Zealand is also under discussion.
During his keynote speech at the 10th China-ASEAN Expo， Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged to double trade and two-way investment between China and ASEAN by 2020， and suggested the two should expand free trade agreements to cover more goods. The expo was held from September 3 to 6 in Nanning， capital of southwest China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Trade between China and ASEAN is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2020， compared with the $400 billion in 2012， Li said. Two-way investment will amount to $150 billion from 2013 to 2020. Li also called for renewing and expanding the free trade agreement by further lowering taxes， reducing no-tax barriers， launching a new round of talks over services and creating a more convenient platform for bilateral trade and investment.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership and the China-ASEAN Expo. The past decade has been described as a “golden decade，” during which China and ASEAN saw bilateral trade increase fivefold and two-way investment expand threefold from 2003 to 2012. “Since China and ASEAN were able to build a golden decade of cooperation in the past 10 years， they are capable of turning the next 10 years into a diamond decade，” Li said.
Regarding the South China Sea disputes between China and some Southeast Asian countries that have dominated news headlines， Li said those concerns were on the periphery of overall bilateral ties. “The Chinese side maintains that the South China Sea disputes are not an issue between China and ASEAN， and they should not and will not affect the overall ChinaASEAN cooperation.”
An urgent need
Xu Ningning， an expert on China-ASEAN trade， praised Chinese Premier Li’s pledge， adding that both sides have a strong desire to expand economic ties. “This desire comes from soaring trade figures between China and ASEAN member states， and also from the global trend of regional economic integration，” said Xu. “Both sides should open up their markets to a larger extent， including goods， services and investment markets. More convenience should be given to the trade of goods. On the flip side， there has been only a very limited opening-up for services trade and the investment market between two sides. There is a huge potential waiting to be tapped，” said Xu. For China， ASEAN is already its third largest trading partner and trade with the region is in the fast lane. In the first seven months of 2013， trade between China and ASEAN totaled$247.72 billion， an increase of 12.4 percent. In sharp contrast， trade between China and its largest trade partner EU declined 1.8 percent during the period and trade between China and its second largest partner， the United States， increased 6.2 percent， according to figures from the Ministry of Commerce.
“If Premier Li’s $1-trillion trade goal is achieved， ASEAN will be China’s largest trade partner by 2020，” said Xu. “The fact that China is willing to make that promise showcases its firm resolution and confidence in deepening cooperation with ASEAN.” For ASEAN， cooperation with China is also of vital significance.“China has a lot to offer ASEAN， including experience in all kinds of infrastructure construction and industrial development，” said Xu.
Ty Channa， Deputy Director of the Cambodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute， said ASEAN is counting on its ties with China to weather the global economic downturn. Datuk M. Supperamaniam， former Malaysian Representative to the WTO， said ASEAN’s strategic partnership with China is demonstrated in economic， trade and investment ties.“What China and ASEAN have is not enough. There is so much more that needs to be done，” he said.
“China and ASEAN are competitors. Nonetheless， they can still cooperate with each other as they can specialize in what they produce the best. It’s extremely important to further expand investment fields， to strengthen cooperation in service trade， to remove any trade barriers that impede investment flows and to improve trade logistics.”
Upgrade ties， how？
Premier Li expressed China’s willingness to expand the content and scope of the ChinaASEAN free trade area. Li also said China is willing to join hands with ASEAN to advance talks of a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP）.
The RCEP is an ASEAN-led trade agreement linking the economies of 16 AsiaPacific countries. It aims to be the largest free trade bloc in the world， comprising all 10 ASEAN nations and the six other countries with which the group has free trade agreements—China， India， Japan， South Korea， Australia， and New Zealand. The grouping includes more than 3 billion people， has a combined GDP of about $17 trillion， and accounts for about 40 percent of world trade. Negotiations began in early 2013 and are expected to conclude by the end of 2015. This year， Australia attended the 10th ChinaASEAN Expo as an observer country. As for China and ASEAN， they have great potential to renew and expand their agreements in key fields， such as hi-tech transfers and finance， analysts said at the expo. In September 2012， science and technology ministers from China and 10 ASEAN member states jointly launched the China-ASEAN Science and Technology Partnership Program and proposed the establishment of a center to facilitate such ties between the two sides. Such a center was inaugurated on September 3 during the 10th China-ASEAN Expo. The center is expected to ease policy coordination and create joint science and technology parks. “China and ASEAN have taken substantial steps to make technology transfer the next focal point for future economic cooperation，” said Wan Gang， Chinese Minister of Science and Technology， during a forum on China-ASEAN Technology Transfer and Collaborative Innovation， a sideline of the 10th China-ASEAN Expo. Chae Sieng Hong， a senior official at the ministry of industry， mines and energy of Cambodia， said it would be a great step forward if China and ASEAN can solidify their ties in the area of science and technology.
More cooperation in the area of finance was called for during the expo， because the consolidation of regional financial ties is widely believed to act as a buffer against instability in the region. The Bank of China enabled the cash conversion of the Indonesian rupiah with the yuan across its branches in Guangxi. This is the sixth ASEAN member with a currency that can realize cash convertibility in China， following Singapore， Thailand， the Philippines， Viet Nam and Malaysia. Also during the expo， Shanghai Pudong Development Bank （SPDB） inaugurated its offshore business innovation center in Nanning to explore best practices in cross-border yuan settlements. The Nanning center， catering to ASEAN markets， is SPDB’s second offshore business innova-tion center， after the one in Xiamen， a major city in Fujian Province.
Those two moves answer the latest call made by Premier Li for more cross-border trade and investment settlements in local currencies to lessen dependence on the U.S. dollar. Li also called for implementing bilateral and regional local-currency swap agreements to safeguard financial and economic stability in the region.
China-ASEAN financial cooperation has witnessed profound achievements， and the overall scale of Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization agreement， a regional currency swap arrangement that seeks to manage short-term liquidity problems， has expanded to $240 billion. China has so far signed four swap agreements with ASEAN members. The volume of bilateral swap agreements with local banks has reached 1.4 trillion yuan （$228 billion）， while yuandenominated cross-border settlements between China and ASEAN reached 1.12 trillion yuan （$183.1 billion） by June 2013， said Yi Gang， Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China， the country’s central bank， and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Yi warned that the potential end to quantitative easing from the United States may result in massive capital outflows and is likely to cause currencies to inflate and stock markets to plunge in emerging markets. “In this backdrop， it’s extremely important to have a regional financial safety net to cushion the impact of global financial turbulence，” said Yi.
Yi’s concerns were echoed by Chea Chanto， Governor of the National Bank of Cambodia.“China and ASEAN have made tremendous progress in financial collaboration， but that’s not enough，” said Chanto. “I think we should establish a regional financial stability institution to monitor financial risks and warn us of those risks.”
“Only by financial collaboration can we realize regional financial stability，” he added. “No country can do that by itself.”
There has been mounting outcry from both China and ASEAN to upgrade the free trade area the two sides built in 2010， which covers one fourth of the world’s population and is the largest among developing countries. A larger free trade bloc covering India， Japan， South Korea， Australia and New Zealand is also under discussion.
During his keynote speech at the 10th China-ASEAN Expo， Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged to double trade and two-way investment between China and ASEAN by 2020， and suggested the two should expand free trade agreements to cover more goods. The expo was held from September 3 to 6 in Nanning， capital of southwest China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Trade between China and ASEAN is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2020， compared with the $400 billion in 2012， Li said. Two-way investment will amount to $150 billion from 2013 to 2020. Li also called for renewing and expanding the free trade agreement by further lowering taxes， reducing no-tax barriers， launching a new round of talks over services and creating a more convenient platform for bilateral trade and investment.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership and the China-ASEAN Expo. The past decade has been described as a “golden decade，” during which China and ASEAN saw bilateral trade increase fivefold and two-way investment expand threefold from 2003 to 2012. “Since China and ASEAN were able to build a golden decade of cooperation in the past 10 years， they are capable of turning the next 10 years into a diamond decade，” Li said.
Regarding the South China Sea disputes between China and some Southeast Asian countries that have dominated news headlines， Li said those concerns were on the periphery of overall bilateral ties. “The Chinese side maintains that the South China Sea disputes are not an issue between China and ASEAN， and they should not and will not affect the overall ChinaASEAN cooperation.”
An urgent need
Xu Ningning， an expert on China-ASEAN trade， praised Chinese Premier Li’s pledge， adding that both sides have a strong desire to expand economic ties. “This desire comes from soaring trade figures between China and ASEAN member states， and also from the global trend of regional economic integration，” said Xu. “Both sides should open up their markets to a larger extent， including goods， services and investment markets. More convenience should be given to the trade of goods. On the flip side， there has been only a very limited opening-up for services trade and the investment market between two sides. There is a huge potential waiting to be tapped，” said Xu. For China， ASEAN is already its third largest trading partner and trade with the region is in the fast lane. In the first seven months of 2013， trade between China and ASEAN totaled$247.72 billion， an increase of 12.4 percent. In sharp contrast， trade between China and its largest trade partner EU declined 1.8 percent during the period and trade between China and its second largest partner， the United States， increased 6.2 percent， according to figures from the Ministry of Commerce.
“If Premier Li’s $1-trillion trade goal is achieved， ASEAN will be China’s largest trade partner by 2020，” said Xu. “The fact that China is willing to make that promise showcases its firm resolution and confidence in deepening cooperation with ASEAN.” For ASEAN， cooperation with China is also of vital significance.“China has a lot to offer ASEAN， including experience in all kinds of infrastructure construction and industrial development，” said Xu.
Ty Channa， Deputy Director of the Cambodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute， said ASEAN is counting on its ties with China to weather the global economic downturn. Datuk M. Supperamaniam， former Malaysian Representative to the WTO， said ASEAN’s strategic partnership with China is demonstrated in economic， trade and investment ties.“What China and ASEAN have is not enough. There is so much more that needs to be done，” he said.
“China and ASEAN are competitors. Nonetheless， they can still cooperate with each other as they can specialize in what they produce the best. It’s extremely important to further expand investment fields， to strengthen cooperation in service trade， to remove any trade barriers that impede investment flows and to improve trade logistics.”
Upgrade ties， how？
Premier Li expressed China’s willingness to expand the content and scope of the ChinaASEAN free trade area. Li also said China is willing to join hands with ASEAN to advance talks of a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP）.
The RCEP is an ASEAN-led trade agreement linking the economies of 16 AsiaPacific countries. It aims to be the largest free trade bloc in the world， comprising all 10 ASEAN nations and the six other countries with which the group has free trade agreements—China， India， Japan， South Korea， Australia， and New Zealand. The grouping includes more than 3 billion people， has a combined GDP of about $17 trillion， and accounts for about 40 percent of world trade. Negotiations began in early 2013 and are expected to conclude by the end of 2015. This year， Australia attended the 10th ChinaASEAN Expo as an observer country. As for China and ASEAN， they have great potential to renew and expand their agreements in key fields， such as hi-tech transfers and finance， analysts said at the expo. In September 2012， science and technology ministers from China and 10 ASEAN member states jointly launched the China-ASEAN Science and Technology Partnership Program and proposed the establishment of a center to facilitate such ties between the two sides. Such a center was inaugurated on September 3 during the 10th China-ASEAN Expo. The center is expected to ease policy coordination and create joint science and technology parks. “China and ASEAN have taken substantial steps to make technology transfer the next focal point for future economic cooperation，” said Wan Gang， Chinese Minister of Science and Technology， during a forum on China-ASEAN Technology Transfer and Collaborative Innovation， a sideline of the 10th China-ASEAN Expo. Chae Sieng Hong， a senior official at the ministry of industry， mines and energy of Cambodia， said it would be a great step forward if China and ASEAN can solidify their ties in the area of science and technology.
More cooperation in the area of finance was called for during the expo， because the consolidation of regional financial ties is widely believed to act as a buffer against instability in the region. The Bank of China enabled the cash conversion of the Indonesian rupiah with the yuan across its branches in Guangxi. This is the sixth ASEAN member with a currency that can realize cash convertibility in China， following Singapore， Thailand， the Philippines， Viet Nam and Malaysia. Also during the expo， Shanghai Pudong Development Bank （SPDB） inaugurated its offshore business innovation center in Nanning to explore best practices in cross-border yuan settlements. The Nanning center， catering to ASEAN markets， is SPDB’s second offshore business innova-tion center， after the one in Xiamen， a major city in Fujian Province.
Those two moves answer the latest call made by Premier Li for more cross-border trade and investment settlements in local currencies to lessen dependence on the U.S. dollar. Li also called for implementing bilateral and regional local-currency swap agreements to safeguard financial and economic stability in the region.
China-ASEAN financial cooperation has witnessed profound achievements， and the overall scale of Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization agreement， a regional currency swap arrangement that seeks to manage short-term liquidity problems， has expanded to $240 billion. China has so far signed four swap agreements with ASEAN members. The volume of bilateral swap agreements with local banks has reached 1.4 trillion yuan （$228 billion）， while yuandenominated cross-border settlements between China and ASEAN reached 1.12 trillion yuan （$183.1 billion） by June 2013， said Yi Gang， Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China， the country’s central bank， and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Yi warned that the potential end to quantitative easing from the United States may result in massive capital outflows and is likely to cause currencies to inflate and stock markets to plunge in emerging markets. “In this backdrop， it’s extremely important to have a regional financial safety net to cushion the impact of global financial turbulence，” said Yi.
Yi’s concerns were echoed by Chea Chanto， Governor of the National Bank of Cambodia.“China and ASEAN have made tremendous progress in financial collaboration， but that’s not enough，” said Chanto. “I think we should establish a regional financial stability institution to monitor financial risks and warn us of those risks.”
“Only by financial collaboration can we realize regional financial stability，” he added. “No country can do that by itself.”