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运用信息经济学理论结合三鹿奶粉事件的案例分析,剖析以三鹿奶粉为代表的问题奶粉占据我国乳品消费农村市场的逆向选择现象。由于普通消费者难以鉴别出奶粉质量,假设各种奶粉的质量q进行重复抽检后合格品的数量服从二项分布b(n,p),则从第二回合交易开始,高于平均抽检质量水平的奶粉(该数目为二项分布的均值np)将退出农村市场,剩下的都是劣质奶粉。建议:建立奶制品行业的信号发送机制,防范逆向选择现象。
Using information economics theory combined with the case analysis of Sanlu milk powder incident, the paper analyzes the negative selection phenomenon that the milk powder represented by Sanlu milk powder occupy the rural market of dairy consumption in our country. Since it is difficult for ordinary consumers to identify the quality of milk powder, it is assumed that the quality of various milk powders q is equal to or greater than the average sampling quality since the number of qualified products is bounded by binomial distribution b (n, p) Of milk powder (the number is the binominal mean np) will be withdrawn from rural markets, the rest are poor quality milk powder. Recommendation: the establishment of dairy industry signal transmission mechanism to prevent adverse selection phenomenon.