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汽车行业是我国工业发展的重要支柱,随着新能源汽车、互联网+汽车销售及服务等概念的出现,该行业将持续快速发展。本文从宏观角度研究影响汽车行业股票收益率的因素,建立误差修正模型,实证结果表明汽车行业收益率与上证综指收益率、汽车出口增长率、汽车产销率正相关,与利率、汽车制造业PPI变化率负相关,且变量间存在长期均衡关系。
The automotive industry is an important pillar of China’s industrial development. With the advent of new energy vehicles, internet + car sales and service concepts, the industry will continue its rapid development. This paper studies the factors that affect the return on the stock of the automobile industry from a macro perspective and establishes the error correction model. The empirical results show that the return rate of the automobile industry is positively correlated with the yield of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the growth rate of automobile exports and the rate of car sales. PPI rate of change negatively correlated, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between variables.