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目的探讨山东省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)疫源地时空动态轨迹,发现HFRS疫源地演变规律。方法利用克力格模型和反向距离加权法模型,结合HFRS病例血清学分型资料及宿主动物监测及1974~2004年山东省HFRS疫情资料,估计HFRS发病水平,并用多重分型模型分析疫源地时空演变过程,确定其时空动态变化轨迹。结果山东省HFRS疫源地性质的时空动态演化过程是单纯姬鼠型和单纯家鼠型疫源地独立存在→以姬鼠型和以家鼠型为主的混合型疫源地相互叠加共存→以家鼠型为主的混合型疫源地长期稳定期。结论混合型HFRS疫源地并不是由姬鼠型自然疫源地演变而成的,而是姬鼠型和家鼠型HFRS疫源地的重叠或重合而成。
Objective To investigate the spatio - temporal dynamic trajectory of HFRS in Shandong Province and find out the evolution of HFRS epidemic. Methods Based on the serotypes of HFRS cases, the monitoring of host animals and the epidemic data of HFRS in Shandong Province from 1974 to 2004, the incidence of HFRS was estimated by using the Kerr model and reverse distance weighted method. The incidence of HFRS was estimated by multiple classification Spatio-temporal evolution of the process to determine the trajectory of its dynamic changes in space-time. Results The spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of the nature of HFRS in Shandong Province was that the independent flies of pure-hime-type and pure-fledged type of domestic mice existed independently → the mixed-type foci coexisted with both the rodent type and the rodent type The long-term stable period of mixed-type foci dominated by domestic mice. Conclusions The HFRS epidemic area of mixed type was not evolved from the natural foci of Apodemus agrifolium but was the overlap or coincidence of the apodemus and rodent murine HFRS foci.