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对我国农业气象灾害机理与监测方面的研究进行了深入系统的回顾与评述,阐述了我国主要农业灾害研究的前沿领域和学术问题,探讨了农业灾害研究的发展趋势。灾害性天气只是农业成灾的外部环境条件(环境胁迫),在这种环境胁迫下,农业生产系统是否最终成灾,还要取决于农业生产系统本身对这种环境胁迫的应对和作用。因此农业灾害机理反映了环境胁迫与农业生产系统的相互作用和相互影响。当前,对农业灾害机理研究不足,农业成灾过程和关键因子认识不深入,农业灾害监测理论与方法不完善,已经成为建立有效的农业灾害监测预警系统、开展灾害时空动态监测,以及国家进行重大防灾减灾决策的瓶颈和障碍。对主要农业灾害机理开展研究以及发展农业灾害理论和监测方法,是国家实现农业发展目标的需要,也是多门相关学科理论与方法发展的需要。
The dissertation reviews and comments on the research on mechanism and monitoring of agricultural meteorological disasters in China. It also expounds the frontier and academic issues of major agricultural disasters in China and discusses the development trend of agricultural disasters. Disastrous weather is only the external environmental conditions (environmental coercion) of agricultural disaster. Under such environmental stress, the final disaster of agricultural production system depends on the response of agricultural production system to such environmental coercion. Therefore, the agricultural disaster mechanism reflects the interaction and interaction between environmental stress and agricultural production system. At present, the research on the mechanism of agricultural disasters, the process of agricultural disaster and the lack of understanding of the key factors, the imperfect theory and method of agricultural disaster monitoring have become an effective system for monitoring and early warning of agricultural disasters. Bottlenecks and obstacles to decision-making in disaster prevention and mitigation. The research on the major agricultural disaster mechanisms and the development of agricultural disaster theories and monitoring methods are the needs of the country to achieve agricultural development goals and the needs of the development of theories and methods of various related disciplines.