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本文在Masson的多重均衡理论基础上,根据贸易联系传染金融危机的理论假说,以中国为中心,以其在本次次贷危机中受到严重影响的贸易伙伴(美国、加拿大、德国、日本和英国)为外围,选取2007年2月至2010年3月的月度数据,从直接贸易与间接贸易两个角度构建冲击变量,利用边限检验方法,检验金融危机通过两种贸易渠道从外围国传染给中心国的途径,基于ARDL模型及VAR系统,探究中国在由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机中受传染的情况。
On the basis of Masson’s theory of multiple equilibria and based on the theoretical hypothesis of the financial crisis of contagion of contagion, China, with its trading partners (USA, Canada, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom ) For the periphery, select the monthly data from February 2007 to March 2010, from the perspective of direct trade and indirect trade to build the impact variables, the use of marginal tests to test the financial crisis through two trade channels from the peripheral countries to the Center of the country, based on the ARDL model and VAR system to explore China in the United States by the subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis in the situation.