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针对异质群体参与的施工导流方案风险型多属性决策问题,分析导流方案决策主体面临不同属性时所对应的偏好尺度和评价效用的差异性,引入群体协商集结理论,提出基于可能度矩阵表征的导流方案群决策策略.通过对各属性下导流方案决策主体的非一致性、模糊性意见进行协商集结,计算属性权重的协商区间.基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真技术,计算随机权重向量下导流方案两两间的优胜概率,得到描述导流方案优胜程度的模糊互补判断矩阵,据此进行备选方案的优先排序,并给出了排序的可信度.实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.研究为多属性群决策视角下导流方案的优选提供了理论基础和决策支持.
In view of the multi-attribute risk-based decision-making problem of construction diversion schemes with heterogeneous groups involved, this paper analyzes the preference scales and the differences of evaluation utility when the decision-makers of diversion schemes face different attributes. By introducing the group negotiation aggregation theory, , Which can be used to describe the diversion scheme group decision-making strategy.According to the inconsistency of the decision-making body of the diversion scheme under various attributes and the vagueness opinions, the negotiation interval is calculated and the negotiation interval of the attribute weights is calculated.Based on the Monte Carlo simulation technology, The probability of success of the diversion scheme is obtained, and the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix describing the winning degree of the diversion scheme is obtained, and then the priority of the alternatives is given and the confidence of ranking is given. Feasibility and effectiveness.The research provides theoretical basis and decision support for the optimization of diversion schemes from the perspective of multi-attribute group decision making.