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在对北京城市交通发展水平统计分析的基础上,提出了城市交通发展水平指标选取的原则,从社会发展、交通供给和交通需求3个方面构建了由16个指标组成的城市交通发展水平综合评价指标体系,并提出了基于路网拥堵指数和骨干网高峰小时运行速度的宏观路网运行状态评价指标体系。通过对2003—2010年北京市实际数据的搜集和指标处理,确定了关系模型的输入指标,利用偏最小二乘方法建立城市交通发展水平与路网运行状态关系模型,并利用现有数据对模型进行验证,验证结果表明:模型精度在10%以内,能较好地满足实际应用需求。关系模型能为北京市未来城市交通发展决策和交通发展战略提供重要支撑。
Based on the statistical analysis of urban transport development level in Beijing, this paper puts forward the principle of selecting indicators for the level of urban transport development, and builds a comprehensive evaluation of urban transport development level composed of 16 indicators from three aspects: social development, traffic supply and traffic demand Index system, and put forward a macroscopic road network operating status evaluation index system based on the road network congestion index and the peak hour speed of the backbone network. Through the collection and index processing of the actual data in Beijing from 2003 to 2010, the input index of the relational model is determined. The partial least squares method is used to establish the relationship model between the urban traffic development level and the network running status. The existing data are used to analyze the model The verification results show that the accuracy of the model is within 10%, which can meet the practical application requirements better. The relationship model can provide important support for Beijing’s future urban transportation development decision-making and traffic development strategy.