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在理论推导的基础上,设计了木材价格影响因素指标体系,运用2000~2011年我国木材价格相关数据,对政策、需求、供给、进出口等因素对木材价格的影响程度及传导过程做了实证研究。研究结果显示:林权改革政策对木材价格有着显著的影响,随着林权改革政策的推行,木材价格呈现下降趋势;GDP的增长带动了木材价格的提升,这种提升效果增长缓慢但非常持久;国内木材产量并未对价格产生显著影响;木材净进口量对木材价格有显著的负向影响,这种影响在第二期达到最大,之后将有所回落。
On the basis of theoretical deduction, we designed the index system of influencing factors of wood price. By using the data of China’s wood prices from 2000 to 2011, we did empirical research on the impact of the policy, demand, supply, import and export on the price of wood and the conduction process the study. The results show that: the reform of forest right policy has a significant impact on timber prices, with the implementation of the reform of forest rights, wood prices show a downward trend; GDP growth led to the promotion of timber prices, the promotion effect of slow but very long-lasting growth ; Domestic timber output did not have a significant impact on prices; net timber imports had a significant negative impact on wood prices, which reached the maximum in the second phase and then fell backwards.