近三十年来,国际航空界对机队规划十分重视,发表很多文章,提出了一些优化模型,但成功地用于实际的例子却少见。一些文章的作者往往仅用运筹学中的某一、二个方法,提出机队的“优化”模型,但实际上并不优化。本文试把运筹学中的线性规划,整数规划、预测论、更新论及动态规划等有机地结合起来,系统地运用到机队规划中去,并提出用更新论确定飞机的最佳寿命,文章最后联系民航实际,通过实例,说明如何最佳地分配运力。 In the recent three decades, the international aviation community has attached great importance to the planning of the fleet. Many articles have been published and some optimization models have been put forward. However, the successful examples for actual use are rare. Authors of some articles tend to propose “optimized” fleet models using only one or two of the ORs, but they are not actually optimized. This paper attempts to organically integrate linear programming, integer programming, forecasting theory, update theory and dynamic programming in operations research and systematically apply it to fleet planning and propose to use updating theory to determine the best life of the aircraft. Finally, contact with the actual civil aviation, through examples, shows how to optimally allocate capacity.