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在数理分析基础上,文章利用28个发达国家和主要发展中国家2001~2013年的面板数据建立面板平滑门限回归模型,实证研究了公共债务对经济增长影响的非线性特征。实证结果显示,公共债务和经济增长之间存在明显的“门限”效应,该“门限值”约为150%,并且发达国家和发展中国家之间表现出明显的“异质性”;从公共债务影响经济增长的动因看,其作用系数的大小受投资比率以及通货膨胀率的影响,但作用系数对投资比率的变化更为敏感。文章进一步研究结论表明,我国目前公共债务规模较为合理,对经济增长的影响呈正向效应,但近年来部分地方债务的快速增加和较高负债率需引起高度重视。
On the basis of mathematical analysis, this paper builds the panel smoothing threshold regression model using panel data of 28 developed countries and major developing countries from 2001 to 2013, and empirically studies the nonlinear characteristics of the impact of public debt on economic growth. Empirical results show that there is a clear “threshold ” effect between public debt and economic growth, which is about 150% and shows obvious differences between developed and developing countries Qualitative "; from the public debt to affect economic growth motivation, the size of the role of the coefficient of the investment rate and the impact of inflation, but the role of the coefficient of change is more sensitive to the investment ratio. The conclusion of the article further shows that at present the scale of public debt in our country is more reasonable and the impact on economic growth has a positive effect. However, in recent years, the rapid increase of some local debts and the high debt ratio should be given high priority.