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我一直在认真考虑经济停滞的原由问题。五十年前的1929年,我开始从事经济工作,当时周期性的经济衰退已达最低点。这一年的失业率达到23.6%,而在1933年竟升高到24.9%。在整整十年里,失业率始终保持在两位数上。直到1933年,经济才开始恢复,这次经济衰退的持续时间之长,打破了以往的历史记录。然而,即使在经济景气最佳的1937年,* 本文为斯威齐在1982年5月22日于哈佛经济俱乐部所作讲演的整理稿。
I have been seriously considering the cause of economic stagnation. Fifty years ago, in 1929, I started my economic work, when the cyclical recession hit its lowest point. The unemployment rate this year reached 23.6%, but in 1933 actually increased to 24.9%. In a full decade, the unemployment rate has remained at double digits. It was not until 1933 that the economy started to recover. The duration of the recession broke the historical record. However, even in the best economy of 1937, * this article is a concise review of Swordsman’s presentation at the Harvard Business Club on May 22, 1982.