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地下水大量抽取所引起的地面沉降,是工程建设场地地质灾害危险性评估中最重要的地面变形灾种之一。由于场地情况各异,目前的定量评估尚无通用模式。一种基于区域水位下降量和相应地面沉降量拟合反演区域骨架成分弹性储水因子和非弹性储水因子的最小二乘方法已经提出。利用该方法反演出北京亦庄轻轨工程建设场地的代表性骨架成分弹性储水因子和非弹性储水因子。在此基础上,采用有效应力法对该场地的地面沉降趋势进行了预测评估。结果表明:如果未来地下水抽取状况不能得到实质性的控制,该场地东南部区域2006-2015年可能新增高达70～126mm的地面沉降。
Ground subsidence caused by the large amount of groundwater extraction is one of the most important ground deformation hazards in the risk assessment of geological disasters in construction sites. Due to the different conditions of the venue, there is no universal model for the current quantitative assessment. A least square method based on the decrease of regional water level and the corresponding ground subsidence to fit the elastic storage factor and the inelastic water storage factor of the skeleton in the inversion area has been proposed. Using this method, elastic elastic storage factors and inelastic storage factors of representative skeleton components of Beijing Yizhuang light rail construction site were inverted. On this basis, the effective stress method was used to predict the land subsidence tendency of the site. The results show that if the groundwater withdrawal situation can not be controlled substantially in the future, the land subsidence in the southeastern part of the site may reach up to 70 ~ 126mm in 2006-2015.