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基于1978～2007年的省级面板数据,本文利用变技术进步参数的固定效应模型估计了我国的资本产出弹性,并根据索洛余值法测算了各省历年的TFP水平,同时对劳均产出差异进行了方差分解。结果表明:人力资本在我国经济增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用;要素投入差异是我国地区差距的主要决定因素,但是其贡献程度自20世纪90年代以来逐渐下降,而全要素生产率的作用则不断提高,将成为未来地区差距的主要决定因素。此外,本文还发现全要素生产率与要素投入的正交互作用对地区差距的影响越来越大。
Based on the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2007, this paper estimates the output elasticity of China’s capital by using the fixed effect model of technological progress parameters. Based on the Solow residual method, the provincial TFP levels over the years are estimated. Meanwhile, The difference was variance decomposition. The results show that human capital plays more and more important role in the economic growth of our country. The difference of factor input is the main determinant of the regional disparity in our country, but its contribution has declined gradually since the 1990s and the effect of total factor productivity Will continue to improve, will become the main determinants of regional disparities in the future. In addition, this paper also finds that the positive interaction between total factor productivity and factor input has a greater and greater impact on the regional disparity.