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汽车行业在我国发展迅速,汽车行业的钢铁物质流代谢在整个国民经济的钢铁物质流代谢系统中的影响已不可忽视。研究中国汽车行业钢铁物质流代谢对再生资源利用产业、再制造行业的发展具有重要的意义。结合系统动力学方法及相关经验模型对中国汽车行业钢铁物质流代谢进行研究。首先通过Gompertz模型研究了世界主要国家汽车千人保有量与时间的关系,以此为参照设定中国汽车千人保有量随时间变化的相关参数。其次利用中国汽车行业钢铁物质流循环代谢的系统动力学模型,对系统关键流量、存量的动态变化过程进行考察分析,通过设定不同情景、不同寿命分布,研究中国汽车报废量、钢板和零件耗钢量随时间变化的规律,并探讨了零件再制造、汽车轻型化等问题。选取汽车千人保有量为260辆/千人的中等情景进行分析,考察时间为2011-2050年,结果表明报废汽车年折钢量与汽车行业钢材年消耗量比值不断上升,最终可达到1.2;再制造行业潜力巨大,零件再制造数量将近8亿件;延长汽车4 a寿命,可减少近一半的汽车报废量;通过轻型化,钢材年消耗量可减少18%,减少近650万t,累计减少1亿多吨钢材,节省大量资源,经济和环境效益显著。
The rapid development of automobile industry in our country, the steel industry in the automotive material flow metabolism in the entire national economy, the impact of the material flow of steel has been neglected. It is of great significance to study the metabolism of steel material flow in China’s automobile industry for the development of renewable resource utilization and remanufacturing industries. Combining with the system dynamics method and the related experience model, the steel material flow metabolism in China’s auto industry is studied. First of all, through the Gompertz model, the relationship between the number of cars and the number of cars in major countries in the world is studied. The relevant parameters of the number of cars in China over time are set as a reference. Secondly, by using the system dynamics model of the steel material flow cycle metabolism in China’s automobile industry, the dynamic changes of key flow and stock of the system are investigated and analyzed. By setting different scenarios and different life distributions, the paper studies China’s automobile scrap, steel plate and parts consumption The law of steel volume changes with time, and discusses the parts remanufacturing, light vehicle and other issues. The mid-range scenario with a car ownership of 260 cars per thousand people was selected for analysis from 2011 to 2050. The results showed that the ratio of annual auto-disc scrap steel consumption to annual car-use steel consumption was continuously rising up to 1.2; Remanufacturing industry has a huge potential, the number of parts re-manufactured nearly 800 million; to extend the life of the car 4 a, can reduce nearly half of the automobile scrap; through light, the annual consumption of steel can be reduced by 18%, a decrease of nearly 6.5 million t, Reduce more than 100 million tons of steel, save a lot of resources, significant economic and environmental benefits.