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70多年前,英国作家乔治·奥威尔写道:“我们的文明是建立在煤炭之上的。”这句话对如今的欧洲已不适用,但对现今亚洲的形容却恰如其分。据国际能源署(IEA)的统计,煤炭在经合组织国家(OECD)2010年的能源供应中仅占五分之一的份额,但就世界范围而言、从2000到2010年间,煤炭占据了将近一半的能源消耗增长比重,而中国和印度却是这一增长的主要贡献者。IEA近期预警称,即便煤炭需求增速比起过去十年的狂热势头略有下降,到2017年煤炭仍“将接近”超过原油,成为世界最主要的能源来源。
More than 70 years ago, British writer George Orwell wrote: “Our civilization is based on coal.” The phrase does not apply to present-day Europe, but it is apt to describe Asia as it is today. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal accounts for only one-fifth of the energy supply in the OECD in 2010, but globally, from 2000 to 2010, coal accounted for Nearly half of the increase in energy consumption, while China and India are the main contributors to this growth. The IEA’s recent warnings say that even if coal demand growth is slightly lower than the fanatical momentum of the past decade, coal will still “be nearing” more crude oil by 2017 and become the world’s main source of energy.